Out of How Many?

Imagine you’re playing a trivia game. Every time you give a right answer you get a dollar, and every time you give a wrong answer you lose a dollar. Imagine your strategy for such a game. If it were me, I’d make sure I only attempted to answer questions where I was pretty sure (at least 51%, anyway) that I knew the right answer. If I started to get a few wrong, I’d adjust my confidence levels. If I had gotten a good number right then I might loosen up a little, but I’d still base my strategy on what I knew.

Now, imagine a trivia game with slightly different rules: every time you give a right answer you get a dollar, and every time you give a wrong answer nothing happens. Your strategy would be very different, wouldn’t it? If it were me, I’d buzz in every single time and I’d spout off as many answers as the rules allowed. If I could guess more than one time per question I’d just start shouting random words and phrases if I didn’t know the answer. Why not?

Now here’s the hack: Life is a lot more like the second game.

Most of the time, being “right” about something nets you some positive reward, but being wrong doesn’t lose you anything. If you ask out a hundred people and one says yes and gives you a wonderful relationship, the other 99 don’t take anything away. If you tell a hundred people that they look like exactly the person that needs to buy the widget you’re selling and one of them agrees, then you sold one widget – and the other 99 people don’t take anything away.

This is also a nasty trick if used for evil. Be aware of it. People will say things like “20 people died after getting this shot!” as if that was meaningful. You go: “Oh wow, 20 people!” But guess what? If I ask enough, I can find 20 people who died after eating a carrot, too. The eight million I asked who didn’t know anyone who died from carrot consumption? They don’t factor in, because they didn’t take anything away from my “study.” So be careful; you have to ask about the secret denominator.

But there’s the thing. For better or worse, the denominator is often invisible. We care about the number of times you get it right, not the number of total attempts. Most games allow unlimited replays, and the only cost is your time. That’s helpful to you when you’re trying to get things done; it’s hurtful to you if you aren’t aware of other people pulling a fast one.

Asking “out of how many” is good practice. For yourself, it can improve your performance, even though you should always remember your goal is a higher number of “rates per time” not a higher ratio of “rights to wrongs.” And for others, it can keep them honest – or at least keep yourself aware.