This is a problem in medicine.

Imagine a particular disease, Disease X, has a 1 in 50,000 incidence in the general population, but 1 in every 100 people with MS also have this disease. If you show up to your doctor with symptoms of Disease X, the doctor will often say “Well, there’s only a 1 in 10,000 chance you have that, so it’s probably something else.”

Even when you say you have MS, the doctor will frequently not update his view! The Bayesian response is to change his view dramatically once he has this new information, making it 100x more likely that you have Disease X. But most doctors don’t.

Why not? Well, for one, because they’re doctors, not mathematicians. There are probably lots of other reasons, but that’s the one we’re focusing on here.

The point is this: other information matters whenever you’re looking at the likelihood of an event. The odds of getting hit by lightning are very low, but if you’re standing at the top of a metal tower in a thunderstorm you should really update your prior judgement of your danger level.

Bad things happen to everyone. And everyone has a different “key response.”

What I mean is: For any given person, there is a type of reaction to a bad event that will make that event instantly easier to deal with, mentally and emotionally. Most other reactions will make it worse. This applies equally to reactions from others as well as internal reactions from the person in question. The “key” is knowing what the right reaction is.

For instance, my personal “key reaction” is planning. If something bad happens in my life, I instantly feel better if I can establish a sense of control. This almost always comes from a quick run-through of how I can mitigate the damage and ensure that the bad event doesn’t repeat. Once I do that, I feel much better, and I can take care of whatever I need to with a clear head. If someone (perfectly well-meaningly!) instead tries to comfort me or offer words of validation, I get frustrated, annoyed, and immediately things start to get harder for me.

Many people have the exact opposite response, and that is okay! I know people who will panic and spiral if you offer any constructive advice in response to a bad event, but if you just say, “that sucks, I’ll give you a hug and get you a cookie,” they feel almost instantly better and begin to address the problem with a cool head mere minutes after.

There’s no wrong response, only responses you might not intuitively think of because they aren’t your own “key response.” But that’s the secret – every lock is opened by a different key. Figure out the ones for the people and relationships you care about, including yourself.

I’ve been thinking a lot this year about how our emotions and senses connect to our reason and intellect.

Think about electronic devices like a television or computer. Often they have more than one input – electricity plus signal (like cable or internet) at a minimum, but sometimes other things too, like information from auxiliary devices. Those inputs are essential to the operation of the device, but they need to be carefully installed.

You need the right amount of electricity. You need a compatible signal. You need those things, crucially, to go into the ports meant for them. If you try to jam the power cord into the ethernet port, at a minimum the television won’t work. You might even break it or start a fire.

So we, as people, have all these inputs. We have senses that connect to emotions that connect to actions. Those things aren’t bad; in fact, they’re vital and necessary. But they’re also very subject to error.

Imagine that when you were a kid, a mean bully put on a Mickey Mouse mask and then jumped out at you in the dark, scaring you terribly. Maybe they even physically hurt you. As a result, somewhere in your brain, the “cartoon mouse” sensory input got plugged into the “fear and anger” emotional port in your brain. Now, as an adult, you hate cartoons, mice, or both.

In real terms, that’s like plugging the ethernet into the power port. It shouldn’t be there! It’s a mistake. A miscalibration. That’s not a thing you should be afraid of, and whatever actions you take as a result of that fear aren’t helping you live your life.

That might be a minor example, but there are much larger ones, and cumulatively they’re doing incredible, unseen damage to your life. The output – a healthy, happy existence – depends on our senses and emotions feeding properly into the brain that controls our actions.

The introduction of random chance into any process is how the process improves. Sure, it’s a potential for error – but it’s also the potential for grand discovery.

Tonight I was making a dish I make frequently for my family. I discovered too late that I was out of a key ingredient, so I made a substitution. My kids told me it was the greatest version of the dish they’d ever had!

I’d have never deliberately thought to make that substitution, but a happy little accident caused a change with very positive results. If the results had been bad, it would be easy to just not duplicate that change. But when they’re good, the results are lasting.

Don’t make things too perfect; the margin of error is where brilliance lives!

Why we talk is more important that what we say, most of the time. And misunderstanding that leads to more trouble than misinterpreting the actual contenct.

Is someone telling you about a cool movie they heard about because they’re trying to sell you tickets to it, or because they’re trying to ask you out to see it? In one instance, getting over-hyped about the movie might be off-putting, while in the other instance it can mean they’re eager to share their interests with you. And if they mean one and you interpret the other, there’s likely to be a lot of friction in the communication!

Sharing ideas is one of my favorite kinds of bonding, but there aren’t too many people that can just hear a totally new idea and immediately engage with it with curiosity and intelligent discussion. If they think instead you’re trying to convince, or judge, or anything else, the kind of philosophical discussion I’m after isn’t likely to manifest.

Don’t worry about that sort of stuff. Those moments will happen when they do. If someone just wants to make some noise at you, let them. They’re sharing, too.

What’s better: doing good things in the world for ultimately selfish reasons (like donating a huge sum to a children’s hospital solely because you want the hospital named after you) or not doing anything good because you don’t want to be seen as performative?

I think it’s clear that the children in the hospital don’t care if you’re just after social media clout or if you’re truly altruistic; they care that they have somewhere to go when they’re very sick.

Don’t worry about being seen as performative. Heck, don’t worry about being performative! Do good works. Brag about them, if that inspires you to do more. The world needs good deeds, not obsessive humility.

Do you look up to intelligent people?

I think it’s important to emulate success where you desire it. If you’re trying to build a house, I think it’s a great idea to examine other excellent houses and how they were built. There are eight billion humans experimenting on things every day, and you’d be crazy not to try to gain the benefits of their experience!

But a common pitfall is to defend a bad behavior by finding the smartest or most successful person you can who also engages in that behavior and then say, “See? That person is smarter than me and they do this! So it’s a good idea to do it!”

That’s a heck of a selection bias.

Instead, find the people whose success and even life most closely matches your aspiration, and find out what they do – and don’t do. Emulate those behaviors even – especially! – if they’re different from what you want to do.

If you routinely drink to excess, for example, you can certainly find a smart, successful person who also does that. But if they’re smart and successful, it’s A.) likely that it’s despite that behavior, not because of it, B.) probably true that they could therefore be even more successful if they didn’t, and C.) very possible that they have some other quality that’s actually contributing to their success that you aren’t emulating because you’re focused on justifying the booze.

Emulate the people whose success is virtuous!

Don’t get frustrated when you don’t understand a complex system.

Two things are true:

1. Most complex systems truly have some inefficiencies that can be eliminated, processes that can be improved, etc.
2. The only way to make those improvements is to be an expert in that system and bring in new ways of thinking, not just one or the other.

You can’t just come into a system you don’t understand as an outsider and magically improve it because you know something they don’t. But it’s also hard to improve something if you’re so mired in it that “the way it is” has become your whole way of thinking.

It takes time. But the results are worth it. Take a deep breath and dive in.

Superman’s best power is x-ray vision. It’s deeply underrated, but knowledge is power. All the strength in the world doesn’t help if you don’t know where to apply it, and being able to perceive the hidden is the key.

It’s as true with words as it is with super-strength, which is why the best skill to cultivate if you want to persuade is listening. Asking questions. Being curious.

No matter what you want to convince, compel, or persuade someone else to do, they will tell you exactly how to do it if you really get curious with them. They’ll give you all the answers, all you have to do is be genuine and patient in your ask.

A perfectly safe environment is not conducive to self-awareness.

If you really want to know yourself, you need to be challenged. Tested. Otherwise it’s all theory and speculation.

Have you ever heard someone say, “I’d be so great at–” and then name something at which you’re absolutely positive they’d be rubbish? Without more self-awareness, you can’t make accurate predictions like that. And you become more self-aware by testing the theories.

A journey of introspection isn’t a serene stroll. It’s a grueling obstacle course. So if you’re dealing with a lot right now, rejoice! The prize at the end is a more competent, self-aware you.